OGUN 2019; WILL HISTORY REPEAT ITSELF?

Taoheeed Adejare Adefolakan 

Events that preceded the 2011 Gubernatorial election in Ogun State appear fresh in the minds of political observers and key players.  It was one event the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) won’t forget in a hurry.  Perhaps, a total recall of those events wouldn’t have been possible if the  scenario that replicate it haven’t resurfaced. It would be recalled that the journey to electoral failure which the then ruling party (PDP) embarked upon started with the issue of who the successor of former Governor Gbenga Daniel should be.  The choice of the then Gateway Mortgage General Manager, Prince Gboyega Nosir Isiaka  by Otunba Daniel as his apparent heir to the thrown created the discord that germinated to the huge crises that eventually consumed the umbrella party in the Gateway State.


 The intra-party fracas which broke the party into two camps with the then sitting Governor, OGD and the former President Olusegun Obasanjo captaining each team wrecked a great havoc for PDP eight years ago in Ogun State.  The inability of all stakeholders as well as party machineries to settle the rift amicably broke the party into two factions.  While members and supporters of the party who were sympathetic to the former Governor and his anointed successor, Prince Gboyega Nasir Isiaka defected to the People’s Party of Nigeria (PPN), those who were loyal to Obasanjo remained in the PDP.   Up till the time of the Governorship election, the PDP had its roof leaking profusely and couldn’t withstand the heavy storm that unseated it from Oke Mosan. For the People’s Democratic Party then, Chinua Achebe’s “Things Fall Apart” came handy because, indeed, “the center could not hold”. A Yoruba proverb  also manifested in the political imbroglio, ‘agbajo owo la fi n soya, ajoji owo kan o gberu dori” meaning togetherness we stand , divided we fall.
Simple arithemetic later showed that the sum of the votes cast for General Obasanjo’s preferred candidate, retired General Tunji Olurin who ran for PDP and that of Governor Daniel’s anointed candidate, prince Isiaka who opted out of PDP to run under PPN were actually more than the total number of votes cast by the Action Congress Candidate and incumbent Governor of Ogun state, Senator Ibikunle Amosun.  

 If there’s anything to regret from the intra-party feuds of that moment, let’s ask the People’s Democratic Party. For eight years, the party became an opposition in the state.   Unfortunately, the same features which politicians in Nigeria have that make them to always exhibit leadership traits characterized by selfishness and greed is playing out again in the Gateway state with fresh experience or is eight years ago too long? For our politicians in this part of the world, the ‘self  concept’ has been propelling government activities, making it extremely difficult to define concept of ‘state interest’ in Nigeria hence we have always been unable to identify conflicts between personal and state interests. The desperation of political office holders, especially Chief Executives to always get away with whatever they so desire without considering the other person(s) or group(s) is the greatest misdoing of or nation’s democracy and politics.

Without recourse to the lessons of the intra-party fracas of PDP in2011, the present Governor decided to drive the same vehicle that took the People’s Democratic Party to the land electoral failure and certainly, a land of no return because the party is yet to get out of series of crises that have weaken its electoral pillars and base. The proverb ‘what comes around goes around’ is self evidence.  Like his predecessor, Governor Amosun didn’t do the needful before converging his supporters in All Progressive Party (APC) at the government office at Oke Igbehin where he presented 40 candidates of the party including its flag bearer, Mr Kabir Akinlade for the 2019 general elections.
The candidates, Amosun remarked were selected on concensus arrangements.

Expectedly, groups not loyal to the governor kicked against the undemocratic and autocratic selection of those candidates and canvassed for direct primaries as directed by the National leadership of the party led by Comrade Adams Osiomole.  Whatever happened, we were told that the direct primaries of the party in the state produced among other candidates, Prince Dapo Abiodun from the camp of Vice President Yemi Osibajo and Chief Olusegun Ososba, a former governor of Ogun state in a prolonged supremacy wrestling.  Dapo Abiodun, the APC National Working Committee’s approved candidate for Ogun State is from Ogun East senatorial constituency. Amosun’s preference for a governorship candidate from Ogun West senatorial district particularly a Yewa person has never been hidden in political discourses and circles.  The power plays and political intrigues are definitely not favourable to the governor whose desperation to have his ambition come true is glaring.  With each group in the intra-party conflict maintaining its position, with the National Working Committee of APC already disposed to Amosun’s main opposition camp despite the Governor’s ‘real fight’, the crack in the walls of the ruling party has been further widened. A pull out by Amosun’s men in APC to pitch a tent with the Allied People’s Movement (APM) is a reminder of the PPN days. Again, like the former Gbenga Daniel who remained in PDP and sent his flocks to PPN, Governor Amosun has followed suite, flying APC’s flag as senatorial candidate and investing heavily on APM to ensure that Akinlade 'reads' the next Ogun state budget as he had boasted.
The picture became clearer when both Akinlade and Abiodun fulfilled INEC’s conditions for registration as Governorship of their respective political parties.

With these pictures, then a repeat of history may be  imminently inevitable.  This would mean that providence has come again to pick His choice like He did in 2011 when Senator Amosun got the sympathy of the good people of Ogun state after his relentless pursuit of the seat at Oke Mosan.  With the preparation, strategies and 'will power' of the man who had been victim of intra party conflicts of the PDP in not so long a time, and the massive support he keeps amassing, the permutation on the ground, has history is about to repeat itself has pushed the pendulum to swing on the side of Prince Gboyega Nasir Isiaka, a Yewa man whose political history is getting very similar to that of Senator Ibikunle Amosun. A man who has taken a shot at the Oke Igbehin Government house twice and is turning all stones to ensure a successful ‘electoral contest’. It is obvious that the Yewas, whose leadership recently declared support for GNI and his African Democratic Congress would vote massively to grab another opportunity that is at their backyard. Yewa's recent pronouncement is a departure from the songs that Governor Amosun had put in their mouths concerning Abiodun Akinlade in the last few months.

Of course, the Egbas, going by voting patterns would determine who gets the final ticket to Government office come May 2019.  With the people of Ogun Central keying into the candidature of GNI day by day, the stage appears set for the Imeko Prince to direct the affairs of Ogun State for the next four years. Definitely, events in the next few weeks will tell us the extent to which politicians would begin to be students of history and jettison personal ego and pride in respect collective interests. One can only pray and hope that there won’t be reason (s) whatsoever for this writer or another person to have to put up similar write up in Ogun state again.  May God grant us the grace to witness political events beyond 2023. 


Taoheeed Adejare Adefolakan writes from Abeokuta.   

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